« The Election and Abortion | Main | Red Sox Warning »
October 16, 2004
Mobile Phone Only Households and Polling
Mark Blumenthal has a pretty comprehensive article detailing an issue that's been bothering poll watchers: if pollsters only call random landline phone numbers, what's the impact of mobile-phone-only households on the polling numbers?
Blumenthal indicates that mobile-only households are overwhelmingly young, urban, and rent their homes instead of owning. All of these are characteristics that indicate a preference for Kerry. I'm a mobile phone only chap, and all of these are certainly true for me. I asked several of my friends (N=25) to comment on these points, and while I'm not likely to know very many Bush supporters (frankly), it does turn out that 14 of the 25 (56%) say they don't have a landline, and use their cellphones only. Statisticians will mumble about small sample size and investigator bias, of course, and that's fine. You do have to wonder, though, given how tight the polls have been.
Of course, it really all comes down to getting the people into the polling stations on November 2.
Posted by Chris A at October 16, 2004 02:01 PM